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Central Bank Yao Yudong: United States interest rates don't have to worry about capital outflows

one of the world's most important economic decisions, the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates this year, will be answered next week, with China as the emerging markets, whether or not appears capital outflows due to raising interest rates, are the focus of global investors.

"the probability of the Fed raising interest rates next week is a big event, but don't worry about China's capital outflow. "And the people's Bank of China, Director of the Institute of finance Yao Yudong" Sanya • financial Forum "to make such judgments on. Since October, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting since the rate hike expected to improve during the year. In early December, the Fed President Yellen spoke, saying "look forward to" raise interest rates because it will demonstrate that United States economic recovery efforts.

but it seems to Yao Yudong, the Fed's rate hike will be very minor and relatively slow. "China's domestic monetary base reserves sufficient, means monetary policy also was very innovative. And transmission mechanisms is also smooth. "He said. In addition, he also don't have to worry about capital outflows because, for a long time there is such a large surplus of RMB, and there is no systemic risk. "Fear of what? Nothing's wrong. "He said.

Yao Yudong believes that the Central Government and expand on the demand side supply side reforms, it will be a very important turning point, which creates a more favorable environment for economic transition. Even if the Fed choose to raise interest rates during the year, Yao Yudong believes the current global liquidity and not in winter, still in "last autumn", emerging markets and is subject to the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too much. "But the risk is very important, as soon as possible to reduce external debt, more macro-prudential policies. "

he suggested. Analysis of the Yao Yudong, global liquidity cycle, this cycle to total balance sheet of international currency and converted SDR to sign about 60-70 years. From 1900 to 1945, the entire balance sheet, mainly is the high point of the international currency of the balance sheet. He therefore expected around 2017, will become a liquidity cycle peak. "This Summit will be the European Central Bank, the Central Bank and the Bank of England buying marked the end. "His judgment, decline in liquidity after the peak is, and the decline will continue for at least 20-30 years.

 

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